2007 SOM Blog

Strat-O-Matic Report

While replaying the 2007 interleague series between the SF Giants and the Red Sox, I recalled that Bonds was not far from tying and passing Hank Aaron's 755 career home runs.  I remember that there was some concern that the timing could work out where Bonds would be around that pace for a mid-June trip to Fenway, but his pace cooled off and he didn't end up hitting #756 until August 7th, at home off Mike Bacsik of the Washingtion Nationals.

So I wondered...if I replace Bonds' 2001 to 2006 stats with my replay stats, when will he hit #756 in my 2007 replay?  It turns out that Bonds has hit more homers in my replay than in real life.  The numbers, by year:
Year: IRL/replay
2001: 73/75
2002: 46/41
2003: 45/46
2004: 45/54
2005: 5/8
2006: 26/25

Overall, that's a +9 for the 6 year period.  That means that Bonds' 734 career home runs at the end of 2006 is 743 in my replays.  That means that Bonds' 12th home run of the year would tie the record, and #13 would break it.  But wait...as of June 17th, Bonds already has 16 homers for the year!  This means that he has already broken the record in my replay.

On May 9th, the Giants hosted the Mets.  With the Giants down 3-0 in the 5th, Bonds came up to the plate with the bases loaded and hit a grand slam off John Maine to not only give the Giants the lead in the game but tie Hank Aaron with 755 career home runs.  The Giants would go on to win the game, 8-4.

Six days later on May 15th, the Giants were on the road in Houston.  In the 4th inning, Bonds would come up to bat with a runner on 1st and the Giants already leading 6-2.  Bonds would plant it in the seats to break Aaron's record and give the Giants an 8-2 lead.  They would go on to win, 8-5.  Woody Williams was the trivia question answer as the opposing pitcher.

So the difference between real life and Strat means that Bonds broke the record almost 3 months earlier, he did it in Minute Maid Field instead of at home at AT&T Park, and he did it in a game that the Giants won.  In real life, #756 put the Giants up 5-4 in a game that they would go on to lose, 8-6.

I guess in my replays, he took even more steroids than in real life!!!

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